Marc Faber has recently said that shorting Treasuries would be the best trade of 2009. This weekend Barron`s published this fine article about the Bond Bubble:
"THE BIGGEST INVESTMENT BUBBLE TODAY may involve one of the safest asset classes: U.S. Treasuries. Yields have plunged to some of the lowest levels since the 1940s as investors, fearful of a sustained global economic downturn and potential deflation, have rushed to purchase government-issued debt.
The market also has been supported by comments from the Federal Reserve that it, too, may buy long-term Treasuries. As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields just 2.40%, down from 3.85% as recently as mid-November. The 30-year T-bond stands at 2.82%, and three-month Treasury bills were sold last week for a yield of just 0.05%. Many investors argue it's dangerous to buy Treasuries with such low yields. While a holder can expect to get repaid in full at maturity, the price of longer-term Treasuries could fall sharply in the interim if yields rise. The 30-year T-bond, for instance, would drop 25% in price if its yield rose to 4.35%, where it stood as recently as Nov. 13. The bear market may have begun Wednesday, when prices of 30-year Treasuries fell 3%. They lost another 3% Friday. - "Get out of Treasuries. They are very, very expensive," Mohamed El-Erian, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., warned recently. Pimco runs the country's largest bond fund, Pimco Total Return (ticker: PTTPX)." in Barron`s Online
The best way to short treasuries is to sell ZB Futures. ZB Futures are the futures on the Long Term Government Bond (30 Years) traded on CBOT.
"Treasuries offer little or no margin of safety if the economy unexpectedly strengthens in 2009, or the dollar weakens significantly, or inflation shows signs of reaccelerating. Yields on 30-year Treasuries easily could top 4% by year end." in Barron`s Online
Full Article: HERE.
