10 March, 2009

Stock Market and Commodities Outlook

If I look at various asset classes obviously he had a boom from 2002 to 2007 and commodities kept on rising untilJuly 2008 and then everything totally collapsed.

The question is when will the money printing at the various central banks around the world lead to asset markets recovery, and which asset class, which market will go up the most.

If I look at equities in Asia, US and commodities, commodities are very cheap in real terms. The CRB went down to 200 the other day, now is around 210 and the low in 1999 after a 20 year bear market was 182.

So we are up 10% from the lows, but in real terms we are at new lows and compared to equities I would say that some resource related equities are very cheap and resources in general, industrial commodities too.