Its important to realize that many stocks made their lows already last October and then fewer stocks made their lows on November 21. Then he had a 25% rally in the S&P 500 Index.
We sold off into March 6 this year and since then the stock market is up 26% in the US.
In March although the indexes were lower than in November, only a few stocks made new lows and many markets in Asia dis not make new lows.If you take markets like Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, they are up 40% from the lows. I don`t think we will see new lows for these markets , because they would have to tumble very significantly.
Although the economic news won`t be good, the rate of getting worse has slowed down. So, the bullish wall street analysts will say "see, the economy has bottomed out".
After this rally we need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10% and after that we can probably rally more into July.
We rallied from 666 to above 840 on the S&P. We are now at 830 and I think we can go down to around 750. But is important that we don`t go below the November lows on the S&P.
After this correction we will be able to rally somewhat more.
(Bloomberg TV, April 07 2009, transcript)
