20 May, 2009

Global Economy Won`t Recover Soon

I think the final low in markets will occur when the system is cleaned out. Unless that happens, the way communism collapsed, capitalism will collapse. The best way to deal with any economic problem is to let the market work it through.

I don't think that the global economy will recover anytime soon. And we have to define what a recovery is. If economic output drops far enough, a mere revival of inventories can push growth up a bit, creating a mild rebound.

I take 2006 and early 2007 as the peak of prosperity in this long cycle, and I don't think we're going back there anytime soon.