Q. While the rally has been intact, there seems to be one concern which is that interest rates will soon start moving higher and that in turn will start sucking the liquidity out or the easy liquidity out. Is that a real fear for the market?
A: I don't think so. I think we have to distinguish between short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates, the Federal Reserve does not really control them in the long run. Temporary they can somewhat control them through quantitative easing and through the purchases of 10 year bonds, 7 year bonds, 30 year bonds but what they control are the short-term interest rates in other words, the Fed fund rates. Reading through the literature and through the speeches that are being given by Mr Ben Bernanke, my impression is that the short-term interest rates will stay long for a very long time. In America the fiscal deficit this year will be around USD 2 trillion and I do not think they can cut the fiscal deficit next year because if they cut it, it will have a negative impact on the economy. So I rather think that the fiscal deficit will stay at this level or in my opinion actually even increase. That will lead the Fed to keep interest rates artificially low because should they increase short-term rates meaningfully then the cost of servicing the government debt in the US will escalate substantially. So I think as far as the eye can see, monetary policies in the US will stay expansionary.
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
