29 November, 2009

Dubai`s Situation. Stock Market Reactions Exaggerated.

"First reactions on Western markets might be emotionally-driven than rational, and opinions stating that Dubai could trigger a second global financial crisis should not be taken too seriously, as Hong Kong-based Dr Marc Faber states. The Swiss investment guru regards the alleged danger of Dubai World's impact on the world economy as 'small' and recent stock market reactions as exaggerated.

'The global volume of bad bank loans is 50 times higher than Dubai's $80bn dollar debt', Faber told Switzerland's Cash TV on Sunday. 'Just to give you an idea how the financial crisis a year ago took shape: six months before September 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, the US investment bank already had a debt of $613bn in its books', Faber adds. This figure eventually grew to $1 trillion." in Cash TV, Switzerland

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

26 November, 2009

There Will be A Big Bust And Credit Expansion Will Come To An End

"The crisis has not solved anything. On the contrary there is less transparency today than there was before. The government's balance sheet is expanding, and the abuses that have led to the one cause of the crisis have continued.

I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. But before that happens, they will print money, and they will grow into very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond.

The average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war. People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy.

At some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war - that you have to be prepared for. And during war times, commodities go up strongly. If you want to hedge against war, you don't want to own derivatives in UBS and AIG, but you have to own them physically, like farmland and agricultural commodities. That is something to consider for you as a personal safety and hedge. You have to own some commodities.

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

25 November, 2009

The Government Uses This Crisis To Expand Like A Cancer

“The government uses this crisis to expand like a cancer”

in lehighvalleylive.com

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

23 November, 2009

The S&P 500 Will Go Down Relative To Gold

“What will continue to happen is that the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones will go down relative to gold. I think gold will go up more from its support level."

in Bloomberg

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

21 November, 2009

The Benefits Of Quantative Easing Have Flowed To Wall Street

"The benefit of quantitative easing has essentially flowed into Wall Street, into investment banks, into the banking sector but it hasn't flowed into the typical household in the US. Unemployment is still horrible at the present time with a lot of people being either unemployed or under employed.

As a result, we have a very strange economy. We have booming financial markets, but at the same time the average household – the man on the street is basically suffering."

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

20 November, 2009

Will Gold Go To 2000, 200000 or 2 Trillion?

What will continue to happen is that the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones will go down relative to gold. I think gold will go up more from its support level.

Will it go $2,000, $200,000 or $2 trillion? I don’t know. But if you have money printing in the world, then the price will over time rise. It will go up more for things that you just can’t increase the supply, and the supply of precious metals is very limited.

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

18 November, 2009

Clarification On Gold

“What I said and also wrote in my last report is this:

If the gold price breakout move above $ 1000 is real then gold should not decline again below the $950 - $1000 zone. Before, this range was resistance and now it should be a support range. However, if gold dropped below this range than I would be very concerned that a decline to around $ 800 could take place. I have consistently repeated that I hold gold and that I recommend the accumulation of gold.”

in Market Oracle

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

17 November, 2009

Stocks Prices Become Extremely Volatile And Erratic In Countries With A Depreciating Currency

"Stock price movements become extremely volatile and erratic in countries with a depreciating currency. In the long run, the depreciation of the currency will usually more than eliminate the gains in local currency terms. So, whereas in 2007 both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 exceeded their previous highs reached in 2000 in US dollar terms, these indices failed to make new highs in Euro terms."

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

16 November, 2009

When Currencies Crash

There is a risk in holding cash in an environment of asset price inflation – a condition that usually occurs when governments create large fiscal deficits and inflate the money supply. The practice is endemic to banana republics and declining empires…and it is happening in the US at this very moment.

The global recession and financial crisis have refocused attention on government stimulus packages. These packages typically emphasize spending, predicated on the view that the expenditure ‘multipliers’ are greater than one – so that gross domestic product expands by more than government spending itself. Stimulus packages typically also feature tax reductions, designed partly to boost consumer demand (by raising disposable income) and partly to stimulate work effort, production and investment (by lowering rates).

The existing empirical evidence on the response of real gross domestic product to added government spending and tax changes is thin… But the evidence is quite strong that these policy responses usually trigger inflation.

I suppose that even someone without any common sense might understand that a “strong currency” over longer periods of time reflects a high degree of prosperity and economic success, whereas a chronically weak currency is symptomatic of economic imbalances, such as a lack of competitiveness or overconsumption, arising usually from excessive supply of money and credit.

I would also suppose that even if someone never travels overseas, he would understand that if the US dollar loses 50% of its value against all the other world currencies (everything else being equal), it means the US is 50% poorer relative to the rest of the world. (Now, this is not entirely correct, since the US has overseas assets that would appreciate in value in USD terms).

Moreover, stock price movements become extremely volatile and erratic in countries with a depreciating currency. In the long run, the depreciation of the currency will usually more than eliminate the gains in local currency terms. So, whereas in 2007 both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 exceeded their previous highs reached in 2000 in US dollar terms, these indices failed to make new highs in Euro terms. In addition, whereas the US economy expanded in US dollar terms between 2001 and 2007, in Euro terms it actually contracted!

Even with the S&P 500 having shot up since the beginning of the year by over 25%, it has merely kept pace with the price of gold. And during the last 10 years, the S&P has lagged behind the official US inflation rate…while lagging VERY far behind both the euro and gold. Sine the end of 1999, the S&P 500 has delivered a total return after inflation of about MINUS 25%.

Unfortunately, the US is not the only country that is busily debasing its currency. “Everyone” is doing it. Because of the current collective debasement of all paper currencies by central bankers, I believe that precious metals and mining companies will maintain their purchasing power.

In the 1980s the US dollar was a very strong paper currency compared to the Mexican Peso. Today, there is no paper currency that is as strong relative to the US dollar as the US dollar was relative to the Peso in the 1980s! The only “currencies” that have a chance of becoming as strong against the US dollar as the US dollar was against the Peso between 1979 and 1988 are precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

Also, I should add that precious metals could appreciate even if the US dollar miraculously recovered strongly against foreign currencies for an extended period of time. Such dollar strength would probably be a symptom of some horrible economic or political problems around the world, which could be friendly to precious metals.

Central bankers and pundits seem to believe that they have averted the second Great Depression, while ignoring the fact that more and more debt produces less and less GDP and fewer and fewer jobs.

For now, though, the low ten-year bond yield is the lifeline from which all support flows. Much of the investment universe holds together because money can still be had for cheap – not by the volition of a cooperative private sector, rather induced by a US government that simply distributes money for free. Such an ill-conceived idea could only have been born in the test tube of a central banker.

Private lenders comprehend the difficulty of making profits when being forced to lend for nothing, so the government increasingly finds itself to be the interest-free lender of last resort.

Ultimately, if central bankers continue this process for long enough, it is the dollar, and any currency or economy still pegged to it, that could eventually crash. Therefore, we investors find ourselves in the precarious position of having to maintain sufficient liquidity, but not too much in case the real value of these liquid reserves is wiped out by politicians and central bankers gone mad.

in The Daily Reckoning

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

14 November, 2009

Risks In US Treasuries

"It puzzles me that after a 28-year bull market in long-term US Treasuries, investors are pouring money into bond funds" in FT.com

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

13 November, 2009

China Will Keep Buying Resources Including Gold

"China will keep buying resources including gold. Its demand for commodities will go up and up and up. Emerging economies will grow at the fastest pace.”

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

12 November, 2009

Gold Will Not Go Below 1,000 Again

“We will not see less than the $1,000 level again. Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.” in Bloomberg.com

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

10 November, 2009

Professional Money Managers And Crowded Trades

"Many individual investors achieve in the long run far better results than professionals fund managers because they are not compelled to perform month-by-month and to become pure momentum players for fear of losing clients if they underperform a benchmark over the short or medium term. But the key to these investors success is that they avoid "crowded trades", which means to buy an asset because everybody else is buying it and short an asset because everybody is shorting it."

in FT Alphaville

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

07 November, 2009

Gold Can Correct To 800-900 USD

"I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below US$1,000 would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness, possibly down to between US$800 and US$900," Faber added.

Faber has been reiterating, in various recent interviews, the notion of over-streched assets and a possible short-term dollar turnaround.

Speaking in a Bloomberg interview from Istanbul on Tuesday, Faber said: "Maybe the dollar has made a turn, it can easily rebound by 10%”.

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

06 November, 2009

Gold, Equities, Bonds And The US Dollar

"Since we had in 2008 the third best annual return (41%) in the last 35 years and since each time high returns were followed by negative returns I would be, regardless of the economic outlook, very reluctant to invest in long term government and also in corporate bonds."

Faber says he is more negative about US bonds under a further deterioration of the economy than under a recovery, adding that inevitable further economic weakness "will lead to further fiscal stimulus packages and necessitate further money printing".

He believes the latest GDP growth figures are a result of massive government interventions into the free market which inevitably resulted in extremely volatile economic and financial conditions.

As a result assets are over-stretched: equities are too high, the euro is over-bought the dollar is over-sold. Even gold may be due for a short term correction, he says.

"I should also mention some concerns (for now of short-term nature) I have about commodity prices including gold. A large number of commodities including oil, the CRB Index, and gold broke out on the upside in early October," Faber said.

"I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below US$1,000 would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness, possibly down to between US$800 and US$900," Faber added.

in Business Intelligence Middle East

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Savings Rate And The Stock Market Performance

"There seems to be an inverse relationship between the savings rate and the stock market performance. When the savings rate is declining it is favorable for equities whereas when savings rate is increasing such as was the case in the late 1960`s, early 1980`s, and now, stock prices tend to move sideward or down."

in FT Alphaville

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Government Intervention

"it may be laid as a universal rule that a government which attempts more than it ought will perform less", Thomas Babington Macaulay

in the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

05 November, 2009

Commodity Prices, Gold Price Outlook

I should also mention some concerns (for now of short-term nature) I have about commodity prices including gold. A large number of commodities including oil, the CRB Index, and gold broke out on the upside in early October. I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below 1000 dollars an ounce would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness (possibly down to between 800 and 900 dollars an ounce).

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Very Reluctant To Invest In Long Term Government And Also In Corporate Bonds

Since we had in 2008 the third best annual return (41%) in the last 35 years and since each time high returns were followed by negative returns I would be — regardless of the economic outlook — very reluctant to invest in long term government and also in corporate bonds. In fact, on a further deterioration in economic activity and amidst severe deflationary pressures (as postulated by the deflationists) I would be even more negative about US government bonds than under an economic recovery scenario. Why? Because further economic weakness (inevitable in my opinion) will lead to further fiscal stimulus packages and necessitate further money printing.

in FT Alphaville

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

04 November, 2009

"I Would Be Careful To Buy Equities: We Are In A Correction Period"

“I don’t think that the dollar will be a strong currency, but you can have periods like in 2008 that the liquidity tightens. If you have the private sector withdrawing credit and the government throwing credit at the system you can get a lot of volatility.

I would be careful to buy equities now as we are in a correction period. It could be a more serious correction then it’s perceived generally. As of today, I will be long in dollars."

in Bloomberg, November 4th

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

The US Dollar May Rally 10% Against The Euro

The U.S. dollar may rally 10% against the euro currency in 1 to 3 months, said Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Investment Newsletter.

“Maybe the dollar has made a turn, it can easily rebound by 10 percent,” Faber said in an interview in Istanbul. “It may have started already since the asset markets started to go down 10 days ago.”

in Bloomberg.com

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

03 November, 2009

Gold, S&P 500 And Gold Stocks

"I could envision a time when gold will sell for at least two or three times the value of the S&P 500. Also, if an investor were convinced that equities will do better than gold, he should consider investing in a basket of gold and silver shares, which are relatively depressed compared to the price of gold”

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

02 November, 2009

GDP Figures Were Quite Poor

"I wouldn’t rely on the GDP figures and I think the market will actually realize that they were quite poor"

in CNBC.com

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

01 November, 2009

Gold Is A Bargain Compared To The S&P 500

“Some pundits will argue that precious metals are expensive, but this isn’t my view. Why would anyone not own some gold, rather than US dollars, when interest rates are near zero? Dollars can and will be printed en masse, whereas the supply of precious metals is extremely limited.

Returning to the argument that gold is expensive, it would appear that it is actually still a bargain compared to the S&P 500. At present, gold sells at about the same level as the S&P 500, but if I am right about the size of future US fiscal deficits and about the Fed neglecting to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, I could envision a time when gold will sell for at least two or three times the value of the S&P 500. Also, if an investor were convinced that equities will do better than gold, he should consider investing in a basket of gold and silver shares, which are relatively depressed compared to the price of gold”

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Gold Is Unexpensive vs. US Dollar

“Some pundits will argue that precious metals are expensive, but this isn’t my view. Why would anyone not own some gold, rather than US dollars, when interest rates are near zero? Dollars can and will be printed en masse, whereas the supply of precious metals is extremely limited.”

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.